Financial News vs. Noise
Strategies | Research and Insights
October 19, 2023
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Separating Financial News From Noise
I am pleased to announce that today we launch the first of the TREX series of ETFs:
TREX 2x Long TSLA (TSLT)
TREX 2x Short TSLA (TSLZ)
TREX 2x Long NVDA (NVDX)
TREX 2x Short NVDA (NVDQ)
These are the only 2x single stock ETFs in the marketplace. Look out for more from this partnership.
I said yesterday that the most important issues for the market were what the Fed was going to do, and Magnificent 7 earnings. Regardless of Fed heads hinting at no more hikes this year the 10 year is now at it's yearly highs and closing in on 5%. Rates look to be up again this morning. The bond market is trying to tell us something, and you probably don't want to get in the way of it. I believe Powell is speaking at noon at the Economic Club of NY so that may give us some clarity on rates. I suspect this could be a very market moving speech. Market's also continue to get whipped around by events in the Middle East. Longer term I am not concerned from a market standpoint unless this turns into a wider war, which is still very much a possibility.
The S&P closed below a couple of levels we are watching, and is red at the moment, so clearly bearish. I would not be aggressive in either direction with Powell coming up later however. On the short side it does not look like the regional bank earnings were anything to write home about, so I will be looking for opportunities. However, a lot of these guys are extended so I may need to wait for a rally.
On the long side some of the medical companies that had gotten hurt from Ozempic had nice rallies. One catalyst could have been strong earnings from ABT as well. PODD was another one that I mentioned a week or so ago, early it turned out. I like these both coming off bottoms assuming the market doesn't crater. Gold and silver miners have been a lifesaver and gold and silver are up a bit at the moment. Can't imagine we get a bunch more upside here without some sort of consolidation so I'm currently out of my gold miners and will evaluate the silvers today. At some point TLT is going to be a back up the truck long trade, but at the moment it's a widowmaker for those trying to call a bottom. I thought I found one yesterday when it broke the October 6 low of 84.06 and then rallied back above after the bond auction but it's 83.41 at the moment.
Besides the above, my main focus today will probably be on earnings. NFLX and TSLA were the big ones last night. NFLX is currently up big and closing in on it's 50 day moving average. I'm not going to chase it up here so will probably look for a short entry. TSLA looks a bit tougher, but I hope to have an opportunity to try out my new ETFs. There is a September low of 234.58 which could be a place to go long if it undercuts and rallies back above. There is another one at 212.36, which would be pretty bad if it gets down there. TSLA is usually volatile so I am sure there will be something. Bunch of regional banks, but also AA and FCX. I love trading the industrial metals so will be watching to see where these end up, so far this morning no indication.
In the early upgrades and downgrades I see FL was downgraded to sell at Goldman. Down over 5% at the moment so a bit too much for me to chase, but could be interesting if it comes back in a bit. Jeffries upgraded ZS and CRWD but those are a couple of the only stocks holding up so don't think I'd chase in a down tape, but if the market turns red to green these could be more interesting.
Scanning through the news I see NVAX got full marketing approval for a Covid vaccine in the UK. Have no clue whether this a big deal or not, but half of NVAX's float is short, so it doesn't take much to get it going.
News vs. Noise
Opinion: Tesla’s Cybertruck has Elon Musk sounding unusually cautious-MarketWatch
I suspect that with the 10yr inching towards 5%, this is going to be extremely important to the market. Jerome Powell's Speech Should Offer Clues on Rates-Barron's
Mentions PODD, DXCM is another that I was interested in but it took off too fast. Baxter and 5 More Medical Device Stocks Primed for a Comeback-Barron's
Matthew Tuttle is the Chief Executive Officer and Chief Investment Officer of Tuttle Capital Management, LLC.
At Tuttle Capital Management (“TCM”), we want to help educate investors about different ways to allocate and manage assets. TCM strives to create innovative portfolio management tools coupled with investment strategies designed to help mitigate risks and potentially enhance returns.